As the presidential race shapes up and the general election picture becomes clearer by the day, there are continued concerns as to whether President Joe Biden will be able to defeat former President Donald Trump come November and prevent a second term where Trump has promised to seek retribution and use his power to attack political rivals and the media.
These worries have been exacerbated by the Hur report. Although some critics have said Special Counsel Robert Hur overstepped by commenting on the President’s physicality rather than simply recommending against charges in the classified documents investigation, he underlined a common line of thought among the American public.
While detailing how Biden cooperated with the FBI’s investigation in contrast with Trump’s obstruction of their investigation into his retention of classified documents, Hur called Biden an “elderly man with a poor memory.”
A new Quinnipiac University poll found that 67% of Americans feel President Biden is too old for another term, including 71% of independents. While the risk of a Donald Trump presidency and his 91 indictments will certainly sway a large portion of that group towards voting for Biden, it is a concern with which the campaign and the Democratic Party has to grapple.
The age factor has raised the importance of the vice-presidential candidate to a higher level than the typical presidential election cycle. Unfortunately for the Biden-Harris campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris has even lower ratings than President Biden. A recent NBC News poll found just 28% of Americans have a positive view of Harris, while 16% are neutral.
Their persistently low numbers have led to months of media speculation about whether the Democratic Party will look to an alternative to take on Donald Trump. Although primary voters so far have stayed loyal to Biden, as evidenced by his 96% performance in South Carolina and 89% showing in Nevada, there is still a lot of time for a change or even a brokered convention. In fact, President Lyndon B. Johnson did not drop out until March 31st of 1968.
California Governor Gavin Newsom routinely denies that he has interest in running for president this time around and vocally supports Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, “The train has left the station…We’re all in. Stop talking. He’s not going anywhere. It’s time for all of us to get on the train and buck up.” Yet, Newsom continues to be in the spotlight and appears to be the person for the job if a last second candidate is needed.
Rumors have been churning since last summer when his political operation attacked former presidential candidate and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis for taking away people’s freedoms. Newsom has since appeared in the spin room at an RNC debate, debated Ron DeSantis on Fox News, and routinely makes the media and talk show rounds. Even this Thursday, Newsom was spotted on Capitol Hill.
Related: Gavin Newsom for president? For what?
Presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump has taken note of Newsom’s rise and the increased attention he has received, “He’s a nice looking guy, he speaks well…I always got along well with him, believe it or not.”
Meanwhile, Newsom has kept his focus on helping the Democratic ticket, including recent visits to early states South Carolina and Nevada. These moves indicate that even if Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the nominees after the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August, Newsom will have a key role as a top surrogate through November.
However, if Biden should decide at the convention or before not to run—whether because of bad poll numbers, the special prosecutors report, or his age—then Newsom is more likely than not to throw his hat in the ring, barring the unlikely entry of former First Lady Michelle Obama. In a scenario where neither Biden nor Obama is the nominee, Newsom’s main rival will be fellow Californian Vice President Kamala Harris, one of the most unpopular vice presidents in history and a likely loser to Donald Trump in November.
Newsom’s clear advantage is that he has what no other potential candidate on the Democratic side has: enthusiasm, passion, a vision for the future, and a willingness to engage constructively to both defend President Biden’s record and to attack the policies of former President Trump and the Republican party generally.
While an enticing candidate, Newsom will have to overcome some difficulties, whether this year or in the future. Some have labeled him a California liberal who advocates for out-of-control tax and spend policies. California’s high gas prices, out of control budget deficits, and problems with homelessness will not serve to dispel these attacks.
Like any politician, Newsom will face his fair share of challenges, but his strong presence and ability to stay on message will serve as a significant advantage when he runs for president, whenever that might be—2028 or as increasingly possible, 2024.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
