Fair or not, in the wake of special counsel Robert Hur’s damning assessment of President Biden’s mental fitness, Vice President Kamala Harris is now arguably one of, if not the, most important aspects of Biden’s reelection campaign.
Indeed, voters are acutely aware that Harris may well be forced to replace Biden midway through a potential second term. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of swing state voters say the vice-presidential candidate is “more important” in the 2024 election than in previous elections due to both Biden and Trump’s respective ages, per Bloomberg/Morning Consult polling.
Harris likely understands this as well. Almost prophetically, two days before Hur’s report, in which he described Biden as an “elderly man with a poor memory” among other things, was released, Harris told the Wall Street Journal that she is “Ready to serve. There’s no question about that.”
The problem for Democrats is that Americans do in fact have questions about Harris’ ability to lead. Only slightly more than one-fifth (22%) of swing state voters have “a lot” of confidence to assume the responsibilities of the presidency should Biden be unable to do the job, according to the aforementioned Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll.
Further, while a relatively poor 36% of voters have a favorable view of Biden, an even worse 28% of voters have a favorable view of Harris, according to a recent NBC News poll.
With that in mind, Harris still has a key role on the campaign trail for Biden, especially as he may not finish a second term, or, however unlikely, withdraws from the campaign in the wake of intensified scrutiny coming from Hur’s report.
To that end, Democrats would be wise to maximize Harris’ appeal – particularly with young, progressive, Black voters – and as a visible Biden surrogate, leveraging her relationship with popular Democrats such as former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama to bring out voters.
Quite simply, given concerns over Biden’s mental fitness, Harris’ relative youth and energetic personality are a critical counterweight to Biden’s age and his questionable campaign strategy of avoiding interviews and events where the spotlight would be on his declining vigor and mental acuity.
Moreover, as a bridge to those voting blocs which are critical if Biden is to have any shot at winning in 2024, Harris has a vital role to play in rebuilding the support for Biden that has significantly eroded from the left-flank of his own party and other voting blocs Biden needs to win another term.
Positively for Democrats, Harris is particularly well suited for this role. She is more popular among Black voters than Biden (70% to 63%), and 18-29 year olds (57% to 60%) according to Economist/YouGov polling.
Underscoring the value of Harris as a visible surrogate for Biden, the same poll shows Biden’s support among those two groups is considerably weaker than in 2020. Four years ago, Biden won nearly 9-in-10 (87%) Black voters and 60% of voters under 30 years old.
Today, less than two-thirds (64%) of Black voters and barely a majority (54%) of voters under 30 say they would back Biden over former President Donald Trump. If Harris can reassure those voting blocs and convince them to come back into the Democratic fold, Biden’s chances of winning in November would get a not-inconsiderable boost.
Of course, there is the personal aspect for Harris to consider as well. The campaign trail represents the best opportunity for her to display her leadership and ability to connect with voters, which she has made a noticeable effort to do as the administration’s point person on hot-button issues such as abortion and voting rights. The former has been especially important for Harris, where she has frequently been out front of the president himself, making fiery speeches in defense of a woman’s right to choose.
However, the one place Harris has been, and will likely continue, to play the biggest role in helping Biden’s campaign is her increased role in the administration’s handling of the war in Gaza.
This issue likely poses the biggest threat to Biden with voters in his own party, and according to reporting in the Wall Street Journal Harris has “Emerged as one of the top policy makers bridging the divide within the Democratic Party between a hard core of Israel supporters and groups that are sharply critical of the administration’s approach.”
Specifically, Harris has been the driving force behind the administration’s shift to a less staunchly pro-Israel position, and progressives have taken note. Waleed Shahid, a progressive Democratic strategist told the Journal that Harris’ efforts are a “trial balloon” for progressives, who have been increasingly vocal in their criticism that the Biden White House has been too supportive of Israel.
To be clear, this is not to say that Harris’ job will be easy, as there is considerable anger towards Biden on the left, her personal ratings among the wider electorate are significantly weaker than among the voter blocs Biden is counting on, and above all else, Harris must convince voters that she would be able to step in for Biden if necessary.
Ultimately, while it remains to be seen whether Harris will prove to be a drag or a benefit to Biden’s reelection bid – to say nothing of the fact that it is unknown whether she will ascend to the top of the Democratic ticket should Biden withdraw – and despite the doubts about her personally, she has an unprecedentedly important role to play between now and November.
Harris’ ability to connect with young, progressive, and Black voters cannot be overlooked, nor can her ability to speak to the Democratic base on issues in a way that Biden cannot, which may prove crucial for an administration struggling to fire up the base ahead of what will be an incredibly close election.
Douglas Schoen is a Democratic political consultant;
