With U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff solidly ahead of the pack in California’s Senate primary just days before early voting begins, the real battle is for second place, where three candidates – two Democrats and one Republican – are jockeying for the right to advance to the general election.
Indeed, there are two compelling questions which will shape the outcome of the race, and ultimately, whether Schiff will cruise to a virtually unchallenged general election, or face a competitive election against a fellow Democrat.
First, will the two Democrats – Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee – split the remaining Democratic vote and allow Republican Steve Garvey to pull off what would be an upset by California political standards, despite having virtually no chance of winning the general?
The second, and perhaps more interesting, question is, will Porter or Lee be able to cement themselves as a firm number two, which would set up a more competitive general election among two Democrats?
Somewhat ironically, Schiff may prefer that Garvey defeats Porter and Lee. Given California’s deep-blue status – it hasn’t elected a Republican senator since Sen. Pete Wilson in 1983 – the 12-term Congressman would have a much easier path to winning should he face Garvey than either of the other two leading Democratic challengers.
Related: Anyone but Katie Porter for Senate
To that end, Porter and Lee clearly understand that they must find a way to distinguish themselves and overtake Garvey. During the January 22nd debate, both hammered the Republican candidate and former MLB player on a range of issues, from his support for former President Donald Trump, to his seeming inability to give straightforward answers to questions about California’s homelessness epidemic and his stance on abortion.
In this respect, Porter may have had the most memorable line of the night when she criticized Garvey’s avoiding giving an answer about whether he would vote for Trump in 2024, saying, “Once a Dodger, always a dodger,” referring to the 13 years he spent with the franchise, causing the audience to erupt in approval.
And while the attacks certainly worked to underscore Garvey’s lack of preparation, Garvey may have been his own worst enemy. When asked why he’s running, Garvey said, “I knew I needed to explore California, I needed to talk to the people. Policy for me is a position. I’ve taken strong positions.” Hardly reassuring.
Christian Grose, a political science professor at USC described Garvey’s night as “lackluster” saying that he “missed a chance to consolidate the Republican voters with a lackluster performance.”
Of note, two weeks ago in these pages, I predicted that a key to this race would be “whether California Republicans coalesce around Garvey” and if the polling data is any indication, the failure of Garvey to solidify his base has left the door open to an 11th hour surge for Porter.
Polls before and after the debate certainly reinforce these conclusions. Prior to the debate, Garvey was solidly in second place with 18% of the vote, holding a 5-point lead over Porter, and a 10-point lead over Lee, according to Emerson.
However, a USC survey, conducted days after the debate showed Garvey and Porter tied at 15% apiece, and most worryingly for Garvey, nearly 4-in-10 (37%) Republican voters are undecided, pointing to Garvey’s failure to consolidate support within his own party.
Harley Rouda: Character matters. That’s why Katie Porter is unfit for the U.S. Senate
As split as the Democratic vote appears, if Garvey can’t rally GOP support, Porter has a chance to supplant him in second.
Further, large numbers of Asian (37%) and Hispanic (31%) voters remain undecided per the USC poll, therefore, whichever way they break could play a significant role in determining whether Garvey or Porter advance.
Ultimately, the virtually non-existent path for Garvey to win the general election – should he end up taking the number two spot – makes the ongoing contest between Porter and Lee – who trails Porter by 8-points (15% to 7%) in the aforementioned USC poll – even more important.
There is a very real possibility that Lee, a progressive, ends up playing spoiler, especially if her base holds, as it may siphon just enough votes away from Porter to prevent her from overtaking Garvey.
For now, it does not appear that Lee has any interest in throwing her support behind Porter in order to guarantee an all-Democrat general election. Lee used the debate to draw stark distinctions between her and the other Democrats on issues such as the war between Israel and Hamas, where she has been strongly in favor of a ceasefire since the war began, and brandishing her progressive credentials overall.
That said, Porter made her case to progressives, slamming both Schiff and Lee for taking PAC money for previous campaigns, and positioning herself as leading the fight against corporate greed and corruption, and if progressives believe Porter is more viable than Lee – and preferable to the more moderate Schiff – that may be enough to sway them.
To be sure, while the debate likely did little to decisively shift the needle for Porter or Lee, it certainly highlighted Garvey’s vulnerabilities, the most important of which is his inability to convince Republicans to coalesce around him.
With early voting set to begin on February 5th, the race for second place – and thus, whether or not the general election will be remotely competitive – will come down to whether Garvey or Porter can make significant inroads with undecided voters, the ironic twist of fate that Republican voters may determine whether or not two Democrats advance in solid-blue California, and whether or not there is a clear winner in the intraparty battle between Porter and Lee.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
