One month later, the March 5 primary election is officially over in the Inland Empire.
Primary votes in Riverside and San Bernardino counties took almost a month to count, a process drawn out by policies to ensure accurate results and make voting widely accessible.
The results show a local electorate that showed up in relatively low numbers, but made choices that shook up city councils and perhaps set the stage for a mini-political dynasty. California’s secretary of state is expected to certify election results by April 12.
Here are five takeaways from the Inland Empire’s primary.
Lower than low
Primaries tend to have lower voter turnout than general elections. California’s 2024 primary is no exception.
Statewide, 35% of voters cast ballots on or before March 5, according to the secretary of state. Turnout was even lower in the Inland Empire, with just 30.8% of Riverside County voters and 26.2% of San Bernardino County voters mailing in a ballot or voting early or on Election Day.
A number of factors could explain voter apathy. Before the primary, we pretty much knew Joe Biden and Donald Trump would be their respective parties’ White House nominees, depriving California of a hotly contested and attention-drawing race that could have lured more voters to the ballot box.
Lower-than-average turnout continues to be a challenge locally. Voting tends to happen more regularly among wealthier, highly educated people, both populations the Inland Empire lacks in comparison to coastal counties where turnout is usually higher.
Hard no on Prop. 1
One of the primary’s top stories is how Proposition 1, a $6.4 billion bond measure to fund treatment centers and supportive housing for those struggling with addiction and mental illness, is barely squeaking by.
While Prop. 1 appears headed for a narrow win, Inland voters, as they’ve done with previous statewide initiatives, voted no in fairly strong numbers.
San Bernardino County voters rejected Prop. 1 56% to 44%. In Riverside County, Prop. 1 lost 54% to 46%.
It’s risky to draw deep conclusions from low-turnout elections. But the Prop. 1 results are another bullet point for the argument that the Inland Empire is not as blue as California as a whole despite Democrats making up a plurality of registered Inland voters.
While Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Biden won Riverside and San Bernardino counties in their presidential races, the Inland Empire also is home to GOP strongholds like southwest Riverside County and outspoken conservatives like Assemblymember Bill Essayli, R-Corona, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
“The electorate that did turn out was more conservative, with (Republican U.S. Senate candidate) Steve Garvey outperforming expectations and doing especially well in the Inland Empire,” Marcia Godwin, a professor of public administration at the University of La Verne, said via email.
“Presumably, the general election turnout will be more Democratic than the primary, but it may or may not be more Democratic than in 2022.”
One bright spot for Democrats? Western San Bernardino County, where legislative and congressional races “have gone from being competitive to being dominated by Democrats,” Godwin said, noting that Assemblymember James Ramos, D-Highland, ran unopposed and Rep. Pete Aguilar, D-San Bernardino, won a “safe majority” in the primary.
Also, the open 50th Assembly District “only attracted Democratic candidates” and Democrats Judy Chu and Norma Torres hold safe seats representing San Bernardino County, Godwin said.
Storm blows over
Following San Bernardino County’s initially chaotic response to the winter storms that hammered San Bernardino Mountains communities in February and March 2023, a great deal of anger was directed at Third District Supervisor Dawn Rowe, who represents those communities and also chairs the Board of Supervisors.
A talked-about recall effort never materialized, but Rowe faced three challengers in the primary, all of whom talked about the county’s response to the storm, which mountain communities have still not fully recovered from.
In the end, it wasn’t close. Rowe won 59% of the vote, decisively defeating her would-be rivals.
Cervantes strong
Clarissa and Sabrina Cervantes’ roots go back to the Coachella Valley, where their father, Greg, served as a Coachella city councilmember.
Their political future is rooted in western Riverside County, a region the sisters could represent in the legislature for the next few years after advancing out of their primaries.
Sabrina, a Democratic assemblymember from Riverside, finished second in the 31st Senate District primary, while Clarissa, a Democrat and Riverside city councilmember, held on to the second and final Nov. 5 ballot spot in the 58th Assembly District.
Both sisters overcame bitter intraparty fights to advance to November. Clarissa faced a negative ad blitz focused on her two DUI convictions, while Sabrina traded attack ads with Democrat and Riverside school board member Angelo Farooq.
City hall overhaul
Incumbents largely did OK in the primary. The same can’t be said for Inland city councils, where voters in Riverside and San Bernardino ousted incumbents.
In Riverside, Councilmember Gaby Plascencia lost to Sean Mill, while Councilmember Erin Edwards did not seek reelection. Philip Falcone avoided a runoff to win Edwards’ seat.
San Bernardino councilmembers Damon Alexander, Kimberly Calvin and Ben Reynoso also lost.
The Riverside City Council could see more change in November.
Councilmember Ronaldo Fierro gave up his seat in his unsuccessful bid for the 58th Assembly District. Clarissa Cervantes, who will be on the November ballot in the 58th, would have to give up her council seat if she becomes an assemblymember.
Staff writers Mercedes Cannon-Tran and Sarah Hofmann contributed to this report.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to correct an error. Pomona City Councilmembers John Nolte and Elizabeth Ontiveros-Cole will compete in November runoffs and seek to retain their seats.
